The BJP may have lost three key states to the Congress, but its vote share has not shifted entirely to the grand old party as some other players have reaped the gains.
Another key aspect of the assembly election results is that while comparing the vote share of the recent state polls with 2014 general election, the BJP's loss is bigger, as it had virtually swept all the three states by winning 62 of the 65 Lok Sabha seats.
Interestingly in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP’s vote share is higher than that of Congress, whereas in Rajasthan it is just marginally less. In Telangana and Mizoram, it is the regional parties who have come out with flying colours, a post-2014 trend clearly visible in many states with sizeable presence of non-BJP and non-Congress parties.
Political pundits said this trend indicates that the regional satraps might play key roles in 2019 general elections for which attempts are already underway by non-BJP parties to put a united front against prime minister Narendra Modi’s bid for a second term.
For Chhattisgarh, the latest data showed the Congress got 43 per cent votes in this election, up from 40.3 per cent in the 2013 state polls and 38.37 per cent in the 2014 general elections. In comparison, the BJP's loss has been wider with its vote share dipping from 41 per cent in 2013 to 33 per cent now. In 2014 general elections, the party had got nearly 49 per cent vote and 10 out of the 11 Lok Sabha seats.
The vote share analysis shows that some smaller parties and independents have managed to get more votes.
Similar trend was visible in Rajasthan where BJP's votes have taken a dip from 45.2 per cent in 2013 to 38.8 per cent now. On the other hand, the Congress has improved its vote share from 33.1 per cent in 2013 to 39.3 per cent in 2018. It had managed to get nearly 30 per cent votes despite losing on all seats in last parliamentary elections. Independents have improved their assembly tally from 8.2 per cent to 9.5 per cent, while bagging larger number of seats.
The vote share situation is most interesting in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress’ share has improved from 36.4 per cent in 2013 to 40.9 per cent in 2018 assembly polls, while that of the BJP has come down from 44.9 per cent to 41 per cent, as per the Election Commission data. Congress has a lower vote share here than the BJP, but it beat the saffron party in the number of seats won in a close fight. Congress won 114 seats, whereas the BJP has got 109 seats. This means that seats that the Congress won, its vote share was marginally more than BJP, but BJP won many seats with a very high margin.