Monday Market

Nifty EPS will grow 17% in FY19 & FY20

India continues to best growth space globally. Higher valuation and some stress on the macro front will mean kind of a range-bound market for couple of months but revival of corporate growth implies a sustainable long-term bull market is here to stay, said Shailendra Kumar, co-founder and chief investment officer at Narnolia Securities, in an interview with Ritwik Mukherjee. Excerpts:

Though there is reconciliation in the US-China tariff war, the period of adjustment will take some time. What would be the likely impact on Indian economy and the capital market?

Listed companies may see recovery, clock 17-18% growth in FY19

The Indian economy is on a revival path, which requires companies to tap the market seeking growth capital mostly through institutional placements. The correction of the kind we are seeing now also presents an opportunity to deploy capital, said Mahesh Patil, Co-CIO, Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company, in an interview with Ravi Ranjan Prasad. Excerpts:
What’s your investment strategy given that equities are looking vulnerable with rupee and crude oil dampening sentiments?

Rupee is likely to weaken to 70.5–71 a dollar in the coming days

Going ahead the stock market movements can be wild since we are under a correction phase of a larger trend, though any correction of more than 10 per cent will push large trend to improve the short-term movements, said Mustafa Nadeem, chief executive officer, Epic Research, in an interview with Sangeetha G. Investors should trail stop losses aggressively, if already in profit, and avoid overexposure, he said and added they must make sure that liquidity is kept aside to enter the major dips. Excerpts:

Rupee to remain under pressure due to dollar’s strength, twin deficits

An election year makes the market nervous and volatile and any outcome against expectation will magnify the volatility, said De­ven Sangoi, chief investment officer (equity) at Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance, in an interview with Falaknaaz Syed. But we believe the long-term growth rate in India is driven by demographic profile, which is structural and not dependent on political outcomes, he remarked. Excerpts:

How do you see the fourth quarter earnings? When do you expect a revival?

Rising crude, falling rupee, fiscal slippage & poll-heavy calendar are key challenges

Rise in core inflation and increasing upward risk to overall CPI would keep RBI slightly hawkish, said Anurag Jain, chief investment officer, Canara-HSBC Ori­ental Bank of Commerce Life Insurance Company, in an interview with Sangeetha G. The current level of crude and current account deficit will be manageable. But if crude prices keep on rising then it will be a cause of concern, he said. Excerpts:

Market focussed on earnings, not elections

Though the political uncertainty bothers, the market has shown the ability to withstand changes in the political landscape and has provided consistent performance over the past decade, said Prateek Agrawal, business head and CIO, ASK Investment Managers, in an interview with Ravi Ranjan Prasad. The market is not worried about elections as the pace of economic growth is accelerating, the government order momentum is high, and the consumption part of the economy is doing well, he said. Excerpts:

Valuations of retail banks, NBFCs are stretched

The 10-year bond yield could be volatile within a range of 7-8 per cent for the year, said Mihir Vora, chief investment officer at Max Life Insurance, in an interview with Falaknaaz Syed. According to him, the key variables to monitor are minimum support price formula, oil prices, fiscal (GST collections), monsoon progress and FPI flows. Excerpts:

How do you see the fourth quarter earnings? When do you expect a revival?

Sensex should never be the benchmark to invest

In the current scenario, the market is going down and the rupee is becoming weaker. That’s a clear indication that strong rupee means market probability rising and weak rupee means market probability declining. The direct correlation between the market and the rupee can hardly be over emphasised. FIIs don’t just look at the equity market, but also developments in the currency market, said Kanak Kr Jain, a wealth coach and author of The Volatility Game–Play & Grow Rich, in an interview with Ritwik Mukherjee.

Market expects return of Modi govt in 2019

It’s not the government, but the global macro environment that matters. The government is just a facilitator. The infrastructure projects, announced by the government, will be executed over the period of time in coming ye­ars, said Alok Singh, chief in­v­e­s­tment officer, BOI AXA Inv­estment Managers, in an interview with Ravi Ranjan Prasad. If global economy continues to remain stable than there no reason to be worried as an investor, Singh remarked. Excerpts:

Mid- & small-cap segments bound to grow in years to come

The current US-China trade war will have a positive impact on India in the short term. But in the long-term it is likely to have some adverse impact like higher inflation and low growth scenario. That’s not all. Indirectly, it may have a cascading inflationary impact on the US, which, in turn, could force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rate. If that happens, there could be flight of capital from India – both from the equity market and the debt market – said Alok Chaturvedi, director, Abira Securities, in an interview with Ritwik Mukherjee.