• Deccan Chronicle
  • Andhra Bhoomi
  • Asian Age
  • ePaper
  •  Auto Refresh
Home

ePaper
Last Updated:08:00 PM IST | Sunday, Feb 05, 2023
  • Home
  • Politics, Plan And Policy
  • Markets
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • In Other News
  • Autos
  • Just In
Menu
  • Home
  • Politics, Plan And Policy
  • Markets
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • In Other News
  • Autos
  • Just In
Home > Economy > India's growth likely to reach a trough in June qtr; recovery to be elongated: UBS
Economy
India's growth likely to reach a trough in June qtr; recovery to be elongated: UBS
By  
PTI   , Published : Sep 2, 2019, 2:58 pm IST | Updated : Sep 2, 2019, 2:58 pm IST

According to the UBS India financial conditions index, growth may have reached a trough in the June 2019 quarter.

India's economic growth has slumped for the fifth straight quarter to an over six-year low of 5 per cent in the three months ended June as consumer demand and private investment slowed amid deteriorating global environment.
India's economic growth has slumped for the fifth straight quarter to an over six-year low of 5 per cent in the three months ended June as consumer demand and private investment slowed amid deteriorating global environment.

New Delhi: India's sluggish growth momentum has dampened demand, capital expenditure and export outlook of companies, and the future recovery cycle will be "elongated and below market expectations", says a survey.

According to the UBS India financial conditions index, growth may have reached a trough in the June 2019 quarter.

In economic parlance, a trough is a low turning point of a business cycle.

India's economic growth has slumped for the fifth straight quarter to an over six-year low of 5 per cent in the three months ended June as consumer demand and private investment slowed amid deteriorating global environment.

The UBS Evidence Lab survey of 267 C-suite executives (including CEOs and CFOs) in July 2019, to gauge the views of broader India Inc, noted that nearly half of the executives expect only modest demand momentum of up to 10 per cent over the next 12 months.

Moreover, the share of respondents expecting double-digit growth in overall demand for the sector has come down from more than 40 per cent last year to only one-third now.

Nearly 48 per cent of the surveyed firms expect capital expenditure requirements either to remain broadly the same or increase modestly, less than 5 per cent, over the next 12 months.

Similarly, nearly a third of firms expect export demand to pick up rather modestly, at 5-10 per cent, and 22 per cent expect export growth to be less than 5 per cent.

"Our base case is that recent policy responses and possibly more ahead should help arrest the negative feedback loop. The UBS India financial conditions index suggests that growth likely troughed in the June 2019 quarter, but we think the recovery cycle will be elongated and below market expectations," Tanvee Gupta Jain, Economist, UBS Securities India and Gautam Chhaochharia, Analyst, UBS Securities India noted in the report.

With a view to boost credit to help revive the economy, the government on Friday had announced its second of the three-part stimulus, merging 10 public sector banks into four.

A week prior to this announcement, the first stimulus package was unveiled that included reduction of taxes, improvement of liquidity in the banking sector (formal and shadow), increased government spending on auto and infrastructure, and accelerated refunds of Goods and Services Tax.

This was followed by liberalisation of foreign investment rules in four sectors -- coal mining, contract manufacturing, single-brand retail and digital media.

A third and possibly last package, expected in the next few days, may deal with issues facing the realty sector.

end-of
Tags: 
growth, ubs india financial conditions index, demand, investment, economy
Latest From Economy
Former RBI governor Urjit Patel has written a book titled Overdraft: Saving the Indian Saver.

Urjit Patel: Why our banks aren't saviours of the Indian saver

FIEO Director General Ajay Sahai said the global situation is likely to improve in the first half of 2020, which would have a positive impact on India's exports.

Exports to rebound in 2020 but growth to remain subdued

ICRA Economist Aditi Nayar expects moderation in vegetable prices to a large extent by early 2020. (Photo: File)

Inflation leaves consumers teary-eyed as pricey onions, food items bite

Most Popular

Mukesh Ambani 9th richest on Forbes' real-time billionaires list
Top credit card myths harmful for your financial well-being
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella tops Fortune's Businessperson of the Year 2019
Employment growth slowed down in last two years: report
GST structure: key challenges and its solutions

Editor's Picks

Income tax e-filers drop by over 6.6 lakh in FY19: Official data
Swiping on your smartphone reveals a lot about you to your social media company
  • Read Financial Chronicle as it appears in print.
  • Subscribe, and get it delivered in the inbox everyday.
  • Politics, Plan And Policy
  • Markets
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • In Other News
  • Autos
  • Just In
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Guidelines
  • Copyright © 2019 Financial Chronicle, All rights reserved
Developed & Maintained By Daksham